Every release has a precedent.
How the Nasdaq, the S&P 500 and gold reacted to 3,547 US economic releases since 2010, minute by minute.
See this weekThis week
The US calendar with each release's memory beside it. Times in New York and in your time zone.
Loading the calendar…
Which releases move the market most
How much more the market moves in the 5 minutes after the release than at the same time on a normal day. Every release since 2010.
Market
| Release | NY time | Times normal (5 min) | Typical move | Holds at 60 min | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) | 08:30 | 5.4× | +0.22% | 76% | 187 |
| Fed Interest Rate Decision | 14:00 | 3.1× | +0.15% | 55% | 124 |
| Consumer Price Index (CPI) | 08:30 | 2.8× | +0.11% | 74% | 198 |
| FOMC Minutes | 14:00 | 1.9× | +0.08% | 57% | 123 |
| GDP | 08:30 | 1.8× | +0.07% | 61% | 185 |
| ADP Employment Change | 08:15 | 1.7× | +0.04% | 61% | 186 |
| Retail Sales | 08:30 | 1.6× | −0.07% | 63% | 197 |
| Producer Price Index (PPI) | 08:30 | 1.6× | −0.06% | 62% | 198 |
| ISM Services PMI | 10:00 | 1.5× | −0.12% | 56% | 183 |
| Initial Jobless Claims | 08:30 | 1.4× | +0.06% | 61% | 814 |
| ISM Manufacturing PMI | 10:00 | 1.4× | +0.12% | 66% | 185 |
| Durable Goods Orders | 08:30 | 1.3× | −0.05% | 55% | 188 |
| Core PCE Price Index | 08:30 | 1.3× | +0.05% | 67% | 186 |
| JOLTS Job Openings | 10:00 | 1.2× | +0.10% | 60% | 186 |
| Housing Starts | 08:30 | 1.0× | +0.04% | 53% | 184 |
The 15 releases
Each with its full history: more than 15 years of minute-by-minute reactions.
Consumer Price Index (CPI)08:30 · monthlyNonfarm Payrolls (NFP)08:30 · monthlyFed Interest Rate Decision14:00 · 8 times a yearFOMC Minutes14:00 · 8 times a yearProducer Price Index (PPI)08:30 · monthlyRetail Sales08:30 · monthlyGDP08:30 · monthlyCore PCE Price Index08:30 · monthlyInitial Jobless Claims08:30 · weeklyJOLTS Job Openings10:00 · monthlyDurable Goods Orders08:30 · monthlyISM Manufacturing PMI10:00 · monthlyISM Services PMI10:00 · monthlyADP Employment Change08:15 · monthlyHousing Starts08:30 · monthly
Public data, open method
Official dates from the St. Louis Fed (ALFRED) and the Federal Reserve, every time checked against the real volatility spike of the release minute, and 1-minute prices since 2010.
How it is calculated →